2022 Election Preview: Republicans Will Take the House, Everything Else is Far Less Certain
Is Trump's domination of the party lowering House Republicans' ceiling? Plus who Will will Hold the Senate Majority in 2022. Thoughts on Whether Democrats Should Stand Down for Cheney and McMullin
It’s more than nine months from the election. That’s an eternity in politics. What I’m presenting is not so much of election predictions, but a look at races across the country that I think are worth watching as well as where I think things are heading based on the current state of play.
At this point, one thing is certain. Republicans are going to win back the House. The only question is by how much and boy that’s a big question.
In 2014, Republicans captured 247 seats in the House, their highest number since 1928. Currently, Republicans hold 212 seats. Based on inflation, the continuing persistence of the virus, the Afghan debacle, and a spiraling crisises in the Biden White House, as well as the GOP able to do more gerrymandering than Democrats, it’d be reasonable to have Republicans have a massive wave. It’s tempting to imagine pick-ups similar to the sixty-three seats Republicans picked up in 2010 or the forty-one Democrats gained in 2018.
Yet, I think gains will be a bit more modest, both in total gains and the size of the majority. To start with, Republicans had an unexpectedly good 2020 in U.S. House electing, picking up thirteen seats. Some of the low-hanging fruit from after the Democrats 2018 wave is already gone.
If the GOP wave fizzles and they get a smaller majority than expected, the reason will come down to candidate quality. High-quality candidates can help the GOP win those more marginal seats. The NRCC and most state Republican Parties are focused on an all-MAGA all the time mantra in order to keep Trump and his supporters and raise money. In this environment, I think it’ll be tough to attract the sort of Glenn Youngkinesque sort of candidates who flip marginal house seats. A lot of folks who could flip House seats are going to be on the sidelines because they know that they’ll be expected to be political suicide bombers for MAGA. We’ve seen in a much more high profile away in the Senate with Governors like Rob Ducey (R-AZ) and Chris Sununu (R-NH) taking a pass on top tier Senate races.
Republicans would need to pick up 35 seats to match their 2014 high. I think 20-25 is more likely and the lower that number is, the more dangerous it is to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s quest to be Speaker of the House at any cost. If Republicans barely scrape into the majority, many are going to question the wisdom of McCarthy continuing to lead the GOP conference. The big problem is that I’m not sure there will be a consensus replacement.
The Senate is Up for Grabs
Currently, the Senate is split 50-50 with Vice-President Kamala Harris giving Democrats control of the agenda. I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case after the election.
Even if the GOP sweeps into the House and makes solid gains, there’s often a disconnect between Senate and House results. Consider 2018 when Republicans gained two Senate seats even while they lost forty-one house seats.
The United States Senate is a different ballgame. Senators are more important figures and candidate quality is more important, although partisanship definitely still comes into play. For example, both JD Vance and Josh Mandel are beclowning themselves in the Ohio Republican Senate primary However, due to the national situation, and Ohio’s status as a solid Trump state, the winner of the GOP Senate primary will become Senator. *
While the national map favors the Republicans, the political situation has some benefits to the Democrats. The Democrats’ best pick-up chances are in open swing state elections in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Republicans’ best pick-up chances involve seats held by incumbent Senators like Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH).
In Pennsylvania, TV talk show host Dr. Oz has celebrity power for the GOP but is a troubled candidate who’s the best the GOP has, but clearly not good enough at this point. Republicans have a good chance of holding on to the seat in North Carolina, but will have a better chance if former Governor Pat McCory (R-NC) is nominated instead of Trump-endorsed loyalist Rep. Ted Bud (R-NC).
Senator Warnock (D-GA) is probably the most endangered incumbent in the country but the GOP in going all in for mentally unstable former pro football player Herschel Walker who has a history of violence against women. True Warnock has his own problems in that regard, but Walker is probably the one man who could lose to Warnock in November and odds are, that’s who Republicans are going to nominate.
Kelly (D-AZ) should be in real trouble after voting to end the filibuster but he has the utter dysfunction in the Arizona GOP giving him a solid chance of winning a full-term after winning the special election to fill the rest of John McCain’s term. Senator Cortez-Mastro (D-NV) represents a state that Trump lost twice, nevertheless former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt *(R-NV), grandson of former Senator and Governor Paul Laxalt is running as a full-blown MAGA/Stop the Steal advocate. The state of Nevada will offer an interesting test case for MAGA candidates. If a state almost voted for Trump (twice), will the state vote for a Trumpist under the economic environment created by Joe Biden?
Right now Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) lacks a top-tier challenger with Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH) declining interest in joining the DC three-ring circus and choosing to seek re-election instead.
There are a few “stretch” opportunities that might be in play, but it’s really hard to see any of them actually pan out. Ohio and Missouri used to be swing states and both have open seats and you never know when the state might act like its former self. Indeed, retiring Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) had a surprisingly tight race in 2016. It’s hard to see Ohio electing Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) to the Senate, but if Missouri Republicans nominate disgraced ex-Governor Eric Greitens (R-MO) that could present an opening for Democrats.
In addition, Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) has made some very bizarre statements that you could easily get away with if you were from Oklahoma but coming from a swing state, it’s a huge political liability.
In Utah, 2016 Presidential Candidate Evan McMullin is running as an Independent against Senator Mike Lee (R-Ut.) Lee has a 42% approval rating but will not be ousted as the State GOP Convention. McMullin hopes to rally together the anti-Lee factions of the state by bringing together Independents, Democrats, and anti-Lee Republicans (more on whether this is a good strategy after the preview.) McMullin outraised Lee in the last quarter.
Overall, Republicans could still have a very good year in the Senate if they catch a lot of breaks and are able to find quality candidates. I think in many states, it’s going to be a struggle to nominate someone viable. Any Senate outcome in 2022 between Democrats gaining one Seat and Republicans gaining three seats would not surprise me.\
Governor’s Races
In the battle for State Governor's Mansions, the GOP has been dealt a good hand. They’re not without their problems but the Democrats clearly face more risk.
Two GOP incumbents are going to have challenging races with Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) Kemp is clearly more endangered. He faces a divisive primary against former Senator David Perdue (R-GA) that could leave the party split ahead of the General election and allow Stacy Abrams to claim the Governor.
Democrats will almost certainly take over the Governor’s mansion in Maryland and Massachusetts with Larry Hogan (R-MD) being term-limited out and Charlie Baker (R-MA) retiring rather than face a Trumpist challenge. Republicans should also be concerned about Arizona where Rob Ducey (R-AZ) is being term-limited out and the party is divided and with a lot of recent statewide losses. If somehow Arizona elects a Democratic Governor and re-elects Senator Kelly even while the GOP is sweeping into the House, it’ll be a definite sign of a more permanent realignment in the state.
The Democrats are facing an open Governship in Pennsylvania with Tom Wolfe (D-PA) being term-limited out. In addition, the Democrats boast several vulnerable incumbent Governors. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D-MI) handling of the pandemic has been very controversial and led to a large amount of animosity. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) and Tom Evers (D-WI) are both Governors of purple states and could be toppled in a political earthquake. Sisolak faces a strong challenge in former US Senator Dean Heller (R-NV). Goveror Laura Kelly (D-KS) governors a very red state, but her approval ratings have been above water and of the four incumbents, I think she’s the most likely survivor.
I think there will probably be a net gain of one to three Governorships for the GOP in 2022. The big question will be where those gains come.
Should Democrats Stand Down in Wyoming and Utah?
While Democrats have talked about threats to Democracy, they have made very little sacrifices to defend Democracy. They’ve pushed left-wing candidates and agendas as if they’re talk about a “threat to Democracy” was only election talk to sucker Republicans into voting for them.
But in 2022, there’s talk about Democrats sacrificing having a candidate of their own in at least two states where they' have no prayer of winning. In Utah, there’s talk about the Democrats nominating no one at all to give McMullin a clearer shot at Lee. There are some Democrats who hold out hope that a three-way race would help them including Senate Candidate Kael Weston:
Weston contends a three-way race gives a Democrat (specifically him) a shot at winning, pointing to the last Democrat to hold a U.S. Senate seat, Frank Moss, who won a three-way race in 1958. Democrats should support Democratic principles — like protecting the Affordable Care Act — not a re-branded Republican, and choosing not to compete sends the wrong message, he says.
“If we say to the State of Utah … that we as a party don’t believe you should have the choice on Election Day to vote for a Democrat, I think it’s falling right into the trap of saying, ‘Hey, our case isn’t the case that should be made to voters,’” Weston said.
There’s a word for Weston’s thinking: Delusional. This isn’t 1958 and National Democrats’ message isn’t the right message for Utah. In fact, the reason that Democrats in places like Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho win far fewer elections than they did in the 1990s is that they run candidates who are far to far to the left to be elected.
Similarly, former Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) made the case for Liz Cheney to run for re-election as an Independent and Democrats to field no opposition so that voters can be given a clear choice between democracy and “stop the steal” nonsense. I’m not certain how much influence the Congressman has with Wyoming Democrats, but I’m certain they appreciate the advice.
I’ve been a fan of Liz Cheney running as an Independent, however should the Democrats choose not to run candidate in either place?
I’d say no, for two reasons.
First, I think the effect of negative partisanship is underestimated in both cases. Many voters could support an Independent, but the Democrats’ decision to stand down makes it easy to make a case that McMullin and/or Cheney are the DeFacto Democratic nominees. Negative opinions of the Democrats running high in those states and the easiest attack, the one that the GOP will make repeatedly is that Cheney or McMullin are stalking horses for the Democrats. There’s no way to make that case than the Democrats leaving the field to them.
Second, the strategy is based on trying to restrain political choice. There are countless thousands of voters in Utah who feel as Mr. Weston does and certainly there are Democrats in Wyoming who would be ill at the thought of casting a vote for a Cheney. The hope is that if Democrats don’t run a candidate, their voters will back “the right” candidate. That may not happen. Some may stay home and hurt Democrats in other winnable races (and yes, there are places a Democrat can win in both states.) and others might vote for the least preferred option because their furious about not being given a choice.
A better choice is for Utah Democrats to nominate who they want to nominate, give voters a choice and hope that (in the case of Utah), McMullin has polling that puts him close with Lee. Voters can sort things out. A great example of this was in the 2006 U.S. Senate race. Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) lost the Democratic Primary and ran as an Independent. Republicans had a candidate in Alan Schlesinger, but as it became clear that the Senate race would be won by Lieberman or the Democratic nominee Ned Lamont, voters shifted and Shchlessinger ended up with only 10% of the vote.
Utah Democrats would do well to follow a similar tact. If McMullin gets close, Democratic voters who are open to voting for him will shift over. Those who couldn’t imagine voting for someone any further right than Bernie Sanders should also have a candidate.
I think the same would apply with Wyoming Democrats if a Liz Cheney Independent Candidacy ever becomes anything more than a hypothetical.
Should Republcians Want to Win Congress?
There’s a big focus on Republicans winning the 2022 election. However, it’s fair to ask why they should.
There’s no big Republican agenda proposed. None would pass since Biden is President. Mostly what a Republican Congress will bring to 2023 is a series of retaliatory investigations of President Biden to pay the Democrats back for investigating Trump even if there are less legitimate lines of inquiry with Biden.
The other reason is that its hoped that defeating the Democrats in 2022 is the key to defeating Biden in 2024. After all Trump lost the House in 2018 prior to losing the Presidency in 2020. However, most of the time losing one or both houses of Congress hasn’t signalled defeat for the Incumbent President. Since World War II, five presidents have lost one house of Congress (or more) in the mid-term and all but one have been re-elected. Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama all were re-elected after losing one or more chamber in their first mid-term, Trump was the only one that lost, and Trump did so narrowly.
The reason why losing Congress doesn’t seem to hurt a President’s re-election chances as much as one would think is that without full control of Congress, there’s no expectation that the President can pass anything and with the other party running one or more houses of Congress, he’s got someone to blame for things going wrong. In addition, Congress frequently produces villains for the President and party to be against. Trump’s election was so close, in part, because he managed to hang “the Squad” of far-left House Democrats around Joe Biden’s neck like an alabtross
The GOP already has many of these cartoon villains, but imagine Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-GA), Madison Cawthorne (R-NC), and Paul Gossart (R-AZ) in positions of power, chairing subcommittees and pushing around the House Speaker.
Right now, it’s hard to see how President Biden wins re-election, but the first step on the road to a second term could be being given a Republican Congress to run against.
One Thing That Could Help Democrats in 2022…
Reason Magazine Editor Robby Soave had a keen observation of how the anti-vaxxine mandate Freedom Convoys in Canada across the world have led to a reverasal in position by the left and the right:
It’s ironic and so true. So much ink has been spilled and Gigabytes filled that I won’t write much on the merits of them, yet I will talk about one phenomenon: folks on the right who think these freedom convoys should come here. Keep in mind, we’re talking about a protest in which semi-trucks block street and honk horns into all hours of the night to intimidate the government into yield on COVID mandates and in the process shut down neighborhoods and make everyone miserable.
Americans are beginning to tire of COVID and its restrictions and in most states, cases are leveling off. Folks are ready to see restrictions ease and/or go away as we try to find normal. There’s political momentum for doing so.
However, to think that means there’s public support for an anti-vaxs protest to shut down cities so that anti-vaxxers can complain. It’s the biggest gift Republicans could give Joe Biden and the Democrats.
This thinking that would support such a move comes from living in a politically isolated bubble where no one who isn’t fully committed to one team or another even bothers to talk to you. The opportunity for massive lib ownership is seen and must be indulged.
It’s the same sort of ideological isolation that led people on the left to wink at Black Lives Matters protests ignoring COVID protocols and were too slow to condemn protests that stepped over the line. Voters saw the violence and Democrats refusal to deal with it. That led to Republicans gaining house seats and nearly re-electing Donald Trump.
Anti-vaxx “freedom convoys” obstructing American cities and the freedom of Americans to live their own lives could turn off the same sort of suburban voters who were turned off by the Black Lives Matter protest and make 2022 a better year for Democrats than that party deserves.
*A poll out last week, showed Mike Gibbons leading Mandel by 2% with Vance way back with 5% of the vote. A reminder that Right Wing Twitter isn’t reality.