A Proposal for #NeverTrump Republicans in 2024
If Never Trump Republicans are Going to Try a Futile Run Against Trump, It'd Be a Good Idea to Have a Back Up Plan...Why You Run for President...
I’m not so much off my break as taking a break from it to talk about a story that’s in my wheelhouse.
Never Trumpers Weighing Challenge to Trump
An A.P. report states that anti-Trump Republicans Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) are all weighing White House bids in 2024.
I’ve written about how the deck is stacked in Trump’s favor for the 2024 GOP nomination, so I personally this is pointless and a waste of time.
All the effort put into a longshot #NeverTrump Republican bid are going to be wasted and at the end of March 2024, we’re likely to wake up in March 2024 with Trump the GOP nominee.
Yet, some people are going to be determined to do it. So let me make a suggestion, particularly with two conservatives like Cheney and Kinzinger in the mix.* Have both run for President, one as a Republican and one as an Independent.
One can make a bid for the President within the GOP primaries, while the other begins the long hard task of preparing to get on the ballot in places like Texas that have ballot access cut-offs in May. If the Republican #NeverTrumper wins by some miracle, the Independent can drop out. If the Republican loses, then they can endorse the Independent and encourage folks who volunteered for them to support the Independent candidate.
That’s Not Why You Run for President
I admire Adam Kinzinger but one statement in the AP article is a bit disconcerting:
“It’s there as an option, but it’s not necessarily because this is all some big plan so I can be in the White House,” Kinzinger told The Associated Press when asked about his timeline for deciding on a presidential run. “It’s looking and saying, ‘Is there going to be a voice out there that can represent from that megaphone the importance of defending this country and democracy and what America is about?’ There certainly, I’m sure within the next year or so, will be a point at which you have to make a decision.
Kinzinger is a good man and made this quote wasn’t well-crafted, but it sounds like he’s considering running for president as a “message” candidate to stand up and say, “Hey, you know what Democracy is important.”
I’ve supported message candidates in the past but the old Samuel Goldwyn quote comes to mind, “If you want to send a message, use Western Union.” We would substitute email for Western Union today, but that doesn’t change the True of the statement for running for President, particularly after 2016 and 2020. We saw the introduction of polling and donations received as criteria for debates. Back in the 1990s, guys like Alan Keyes or Robert Dornan could run for President with no hope of winning just to talk about stuff. That era is really over. If Kinzinger were to run for President and not catch fire, he’d probably get to speak a few Lincoln Day dinners and a couple of debates hardly anyone will watch before the media and party start putting in qualifiers.
If you’re not going to run with a goal of winning, don’t expect people to volunteer, give money, or vote for a campaign in meaningful numbers to get on the ballot.
I get that Kinzinger may not see himself actually winning, but he either has to move past that or he shouldn’t run. If you want to defend Democracy, if you want to be an effective voice in the campaign for your values, the best you can do it is run an inspiring campaign that gets people to volunteer, give money, and believe you can win. If you can ‘t, don’t waste your time.
Kinzinger has a young son, as do I, and I can’t imagine undertaking a campaign as a fool’s errand and being 2024’s Joe Walsh to make a point.
What Would It Take to Beat Trump for the GOP Nomination?
While I’ve outlined why I believe that it’s incredibly implausible for Trump to lose the GOP nomination, I think it’s worth examining what would be a combination of circumstances might allow that eventuality to happen.
Probably the one sign that might happen is the war between Ukraine and Russia raising an issue that could drive a wedge between Trump and his Republican base. Trump’s praising of Putin was something that Republican voters from the age of Reagan were willing to overlook for political power.
The War in Ukraine has drawn a clear dividing line. The vast majority of both parties has turned on Putin in bi-partisan revulsion. Trump treated him as a politically incorrect symbol of strength. Trump could get away with this as long as Putin’s actions remained obscure to Americans. However, Putin’s attack on Ukraine has exposed Putin as a butcher and a monster. Yet Trump praised Putin as a genius, refused to call him evil, and even said that there was “a lot of love” behind Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, which has ended in the destruction of maternity hospitals. In Trump’s refusal to call out Putin, he’s put himself on the wrong side of 80% of the base and you might have the beginnings of Republicans willing to vote against Trump, at least in the primaries. Still, that’s not enough.
First, it would require Trumpist don’t press their organizational advantages. There are several state parties where Trump supporters control enough of the party machinery to cancel primaries and just award delegates to Trump. If enough states do that, it’s going to be mathematically impossible for a challenger to win.
The censure of Kinzinger and Cheney by the RNC shows that Trump has them under his thumb. The current rules favor Trump because of organizational advantages and name recognition. Challengers would have to raise a highly improbable amount of money to challenge. The RNC could tighten the screws and make it even harder.
In both cases, the advantages need to not be pressed. Perhaps, it would be because of overconfidence. If you think victory is assured, why go overboard? This sort of long-term strategic might just be beyond Trumpists and his lackies, many of whom spend valuable time sharing conspiracies rather than doing what state parties are supposed to do and actually writing rules. Also, some might fear by openly fixing the game early, they might inspire a third-party movement or another revolt.
Whatever the case, the rules can’t get any worse for challengers than they were in 2016.
Second, it would be helpful if the Democratic nominating process were boring. This way in open and modified close primary states, Independent voters and Democrats would have every reason to vote in the GOP primary, and with Trump’s poor numbers among those groups, that could tip the balance.
Third, and related to the first two, would be a candidate destroying Trump in New Hampshire. Trump won New Hampshire in 2016, but that was as much due to the division in non-Trump candidates. New Hampshire voters are very unpredictable in the Republican Party. Nothing better epitomizes than the 1996 and 2000 primaries which were won by Pat Buchanan and John McCain respectively. New Hampshire voters are an unpredictable lot particularly unaffiliated. In 2016, Trump really never lost big when it mattered .He lost the Iowa Caucuses, but only by three and a half points. Imagine him going into New Hampshire and getting blown out by double digits.
It would set him on his ear and make him look all too vulnerable. It’d set off crazy conspiracy talk and epic whining He’d look like a loser. That would be an opportunity to gain momentum and we’ve never seen Trump reeling. From there it’d be hoping he collapsed. Of course, he could come back and win South Carolina and roll to the nomination. That happened to George W. Bush in 2000. However, Bush adjusted. It’s hard to imagine Trump doing likewise.
In terms of my two candidate parlay, I’m of two minds as to who would be the best to run in the Republican Primary. Kinzinger will be out of office in 2022 and could essentially move to New Hampshire. The Air Force Lieutenant Colonel could take a page from the John McCain playbook and move to New Hampshire with his theme of country first.
Cheney might make more sense as her record is more conservative and harder to punch holes in than Kinzinger. She also is showing great fundraising strength. If she survives her primary this year, she could reconnect with loyalists in the old Bush fundraising network and thus be better suited to carry on the fight. So as much as I’d like to vote for Liz Cheney for President in 2024 in the general election if one person was going to make a longshot play for the GOP nomination, she makes the most sense. I think Kinzinger could have plenty of appeal as an Independent alternatives to the Democrats and the flailing Biden administration.
What About Hogan?
What about Governor Larry Hogan? So far I’ve only discussed Kinzinger and Cheney, but the article referenced Larry Hogan. As of right now, Hogan has zero chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Why? He’s not pro-life. Now many #NeverTrump Republicans will think this is an unimportant point, particularly at this juncture. And if you voted for Joe Biden, there’s no reason you couldn’t vote for Larry Hogan. However, not being pro-life is going to be a significant barrier that would turn off voters who might otherwise consider an anti-Trump alternative.
One of the big problems is that voters and activists have made clear statements of how they will or will not vote and others have decided to ignore them and do their own thing, such as Cruz supporters who ignored warnings that Cruz was poison in blue states and pushed him through the early primaries only for him to be demolished in April of 2016.
Hogan could remedy this issue by simply changing his stance in the same way that Mitt Romney did before his 2008 Presidential bid. He’s taking a “personally opposed” to abortion but not doing anything to change Maryland’s laws in the same vein Romney took in Massachusetts.
Of course, many people, myself among them, were suspicious of the sincerity of the switch, but if Hogan were running against Trump, a man who took five different abortion positions in three days. Hogan might do better if changed position and was consistent.
Still, I think Hogan’s prospects are overrated. He’s Governor of a state where a lot of DC-based media folks live and takes a moderate perspective on issues. That’s appealing to them. Even if Hogan became pro-life, I doubt he would appeal much to GOP primary voters And as far as a general election third party candidate, I don’t think he’s what most folks are looking for. However, Hogan has is a multi-millionaire, and if he were able to self-fund, he might be able to build a niche for himself as an Independent candidate in the fall of 2024.
The Expecations are Set Too High for DeSantis
Of course, spending so much time on Cheney, Kinzinger, and even Hogan begs to delve into other candidates, most notable Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fl.)
I have many thoughts on the specifics of a DeSantis candidacy specific to 2024, but don’t want to go into them as this brief newsletter would go far longer than I wanted.
However, as a general rule, I think DeSantis is overrated. Historically think back recent years at those potential unproven Republican presidential candidates who received a lot of press early in the campaign or before it began Think of Phil Gramm, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty, or Jeb Bush (and you may have forgotten Gramm or Pawlenty or existed.)
The expectations for these campaigns were set sky high, but every one of them flailed out in spectacular fashion. To be clear, I’m not being superstitutious. This isn’t a case of linking presidential outcomes to who one a football game, but I think there are practical reasons these campaigns flamed out.
Expectations were set sky high at a level that they couldn’t meet or couldn’t sustain over a long period of time. All of these candidates peaked too early, didn’t meet heightened expectations. and ended up footnotes in the presidential campaigns.
Part of this goes back to the insanity of our presidential selection process which requires and rewards dozens of petty unrelated and nonsensical skills and candidate actions that have nothing to do with determining who would be the best president or even who would be the best party nominee. Who knows whether DeSantis can master these petty irrelevancies?
The national political press, both the mainstream media and conservative media figures are setting expectations so high that DeSantis is sure to disappoint. The first disappointment might come this November.
The last Republican who lived up to the hype was Governor George W. Bush (R-TX). Bush had been widely popular governor known for working across the aisle. Bush had narrowly won a first term, but even while Rpublicans nationwide were having a mixed night, Bush won a dominating 68-31% victory of Land Commissioner Garry Mauro.
DeSantis is not going to get GWB '1998 numbers. He’s been a divisive Governor in a purple state, who still gets approval ratings above 50% and will be facing either Congressman and former Governor Charlie Crist (D-Fl.) or State Agriculture Commissionner Nikki Fried, the only Democrat to win Statewide in 2018. DeSantis should still win given that this is likely Republican wave year, but now that’s not enough. If DeSantis gets an 8-point victory is that good enough or do people begin to doubt his electability? How much does he need to win by in order to be considered a credible national candidate?
This will be the debate we’ll get and the coverage DeSantis will receive. And if he clears that hurdle, then organizational matters such as fundraising will be in focus. Voters in early primary states will have high expectations for DeSantis as a speaker and DeSantis campaign events in general. He’s being put on a pedastool on the basis of speculation and wrong steps are going to be both impossible to avoid and also likely to lead to disillustionment.
It reminds me of 2008 when many conservatives were disappointed in the GOP field. and former Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) was hyped beyond all reason as the next Ronald Reagan. Thompson was a good public servant and by all accounts, a very good man. He was also an actor who had been starring in Law and Order and had gotten the audience of the show to suspend disbelief enough to believe that Manhattan would elect his character, a Republican with a Southern accent, as District Attorney.
However, despite his strengths, the dry, slow-spoken, yet articulate, former Senator couldn’t match his hype. After a disappointing first appearance which would set the tone for the rest of Thompson's ill-fated campaign, one pundit remarked, “The demand for Fred Thompson outstripped the supply.”
I can’t help but think the same will be true of the demand for Ron DeSantis.